Spot gold held steady near a four month low of USD 1550 an ounce as cautious investors stayed away from taking fresh positions ahead of the key US job data due later today. Earlier, prices slipped to USD 1539.74, the lowest level since May 2012, weighed down by a strong US dollar and upbeat equities that abated gold's safe haven appeal amid concerns over the Korean peninsula. As per the forecast, the NFP data will show employers adding 200,000 jobs in March compared 236,000 workers hired in February whereas the unemployment rate held steady at 7.7 percent, a four year low. A strong job number perhaps prompts the US FED to taper down its bullion-friendly bond buying program. At the same time, bullion market has already digested the news of Bank of Japan's surprise move of monetary expansion to arrest inflation, the European Central Bank's rate decision and comments of ECB President Draghi. Bullion was also influenced by the reports of holdings of major gold exchange traded funds declining to their lowest level since August 2012 and an absent Chinese market.
The prevailing selling momentum has taken prices down but failed to clear the stiff support of USD 1537. Enduring formation suggests prices have more room for further downside but it has to break USD 1537 with stiff volume. Anyhow, fall below the same, next sizeable move is expected towards USD 1520 level, breaking of which is mandatory for long liquidation towards USD 1480/1448 levels. However, if dips do not extend much past USD 1537, see a corrective rise till USD 1559/1575 levels but possibilities of strong uptrend are vested with the ability to trade consistently above USD 1588 with volume. USD 1607/1618 is the upside objective once such attempts are successful. MACD indicator has provided a bearish turnaround signal while the RSI is entered into the oversold region.
Trading strategies:
Key levels for the day: Downside: Immediate 1537/1520/1480 followed by 1448.
Upside Immediate: 1559/1565/1585-1588/1607/1618/ then1660
Buy above 1560 target 1577 SL below1547
Buy above 1588 target 1600 SL below 1578. Buy near 1609 target 1620 SL below 1598.
Sell on pullbacks to 1585 target 1555 SL above 1596
Sell below 1537 target 1520 SL 1553. Sell below 1518 target 1480 SL above 1554
Expect an initial consolidation, in a tight range of 1537-1559 levels, but breaking any of the sides would
suggest fresh directional moves.
MCX May: Intraday Levels are: Resistance seen at: 29190/29360/29620/29940
Supports: 29080/28810/28700/28510/28320
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Buy Gold above USD 1560; target USD 1577: Geojit Comtrade
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