Tulsian told CNBC-TV18, "Reliance Industries- I don't think that the disappointment was so much on the petchem. We have seen a sequential drop of 20 basis points on the EBIT but I won't be too much disturbed with that but the upstream has really disappointed to a great extent because if you see the Rs 590 crore EBIT on Q3 and for this Q4 they had a EBIT of Rs 460 crore. That means there is a drop of Rs 125-130 crore and if you go by the interest income there is a reduction of Rs 100 crore in the interest. I am referring all this reduction figure sequentially on quarter on quarter (Q-o-Q) basis and the increase in the interest income by Rs 350 crore. So, because of this extra income on account of the interest the treasury operations has really helped the company to maintain the targeted or the estimated profit after tax (PAT) of about Rs 5550 crore which while the company has posted Rs 5585 crore."
He further added, "The concerns remain on the upstream which is not likely to get redressed in the next couple of quarters also. However my concern or worry is more on the refining front. In spite of company having posted a gross refining margin (GRM) of USD 10.1 for this quarter, if you see the situation going ahead from middle of March or from the last week of March we have seen the Singapore benchmark having corrected by about USD 1-1.5 or so. If you see the crude prices having corrected by about 15 percent in this last week or so generally whatever relative fall, whatever percentage fall we see in the crude prices, two third of that percentage we see the GRM also falling. So, what my point is that if the crude has corrected by 15 percent we can see the GRM also falling by about 10 percent. If they have USD 10 as GRM that means Rs 1 drop on account of the fall in crude prices and USD 1 on account of the contraction in the margin. If you go by the heavy and light crude differential also, that is also shrinking. So, for Q1 I have my cautious view on the GRM margin which I don't expect it to be more than USD 8.5. So, I think market is little cautious taking a cue on the Q1 numbers."
"The company has to demonstrate some other news announcements may be in terms of the upstream production hike in KG-D6 or may be the launch of telecom ventures or may be the improvements in the retail because the retail and the shale gas have been little better because if you see on a consolidated basis the operations have shown a top-line of Rs 15000 crore and EBIT of about Rs 350-370 crore. So, overall neutral on petchem, disappointment on upstream and concerns continuing to build up on the refining front. So, taking all this into consultation stock can take a support at around Rs 760 where the renewed buying can come in."
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