Spot gold prices fell started the week on a low note as bailout agreement to rescue Portugal's largest listed bank and a better tone to the global economy reflected by a higher S&P 500 equities index reduced the safe-haven buying in the yellow metal.
However, over the week prices traded positive after Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said Russia has gathered military forces at the border with Ukraine either to put pressure on the neighboring country or to enter it.
Safe haven bids rose after NATO said Russia had massed about 20,000 combat-ready troops on Ukraine's border and could use the pretext of a humanitarian mission to invade, its starkest warning yet that Moscow could soon mount a ground assault against its neighbor.
In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Moscow's biggest economic response to Western sanctions, ordering his government to restrict imports of food from countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia.
Spot gold prices in the international markets gained by around 1.22 percent in the last week and closed at $1309.34/oz
In the Indian markets, gold prices gained by around 2 percent in the last week and closed at Rs.28604/10 gms.
Outlook
From a week perspective, we expect gold prices to trade higher as tensions between Iraq and the US continue to dominate gold's safe haven appeal
On the contrary, the economic data sets released from the US has showed signs of growth. This might lead to strength in the dollar index in turn lower gold prices
Decline in SPDR gold holdings in the recent weeks also indicate decline in investors interest in gold
Meanwhile, speculative interest in the recent week also shows that hedge funds and money managers are not that bullish on the yellow metal which can exert downside pressure on prices
In the Indian markets, we expect gold prices to trade higher taking cues from strong international markets and prices can possibly head towards Rs.29000 mark. Weekly Technical Levels – Trend Up
Spot Gold : Support $1280/$1260 Resistance $1330/$1350. (CMP: $1305.89)
Strategy: Buy MCX Gold October between 28,400 – 28,500, SL- 27,900, Target – 29,100 / 29,500.(CMP: Rs.28550)
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