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Nifty was down a whopping 3.7 percent in the December series and closed below the low point of November series. Trend in the broader market wasn't as bad as the benchmark itself. CNX mid-cap traded flat with a negative bias this series while BSE mid-cap was down 2.7 percent. Nifty was down 1.12 percent on the expiry day itself as Nifty fell 100 points in 30 minutes. HDFC, BHEL and ONGC led the fall while mid-cap stayed in the green zone.
During the series, Nifty hit a new high but failed to hold the higher levels and fell down to 8000 levels. After slipping more than 600 points the index managed to recoup more than half of its losses but closed below the lowest level of the previous series of 8225 levels.
"Monthly VWAP (Volume weight age average) of the series is at around 8350 levels. Now, it has to scale above 8350-8375 zones to see the next leg of rally towards 8540 and higher levels. As per the recent trend upside is limited then the downside so traders are required to remain cautious and take calculative risk," said Taparia.
Betting on rate cut expectations and a broader revival in the economy, investors remain positive in the banking space.
Long positions in the banking space were a saving grace; Bank Nifty was up 3 percent this series and logged its all-time high levels in the December series and is likely to drive the next leg of the rally feels Taparia.
Siddharth Bhamre too is not very optimistic at least in the first half of the Jan series. "We do not see this market going above 8450. F&O data suggests that there is a positive sentiment and people are willing to buy on dips rather than thinking of shorting this market," said Bhamre.
In this entire fall, people have squared off long positions and buying at lower levels, instead of shorting. He does market correcting more than 5-6 percent in January. Bhamre said he won't be buyer in the market unless crude bounces back above 62-a-barell mark. He cites weakness in the crude oil prices as a major reason for volatility in the stocks markets globally.
On specific names Taparia is bullish on Bharatforg, PSU Banks, Ashokley, Recltd, Lichsgfin, Sksmicro, M&MFinance, UPL, Jswenergy and holds negative view on DLF, Cairn, Jindalstel, SSLT, Jpassociate and other beaten down stocks where shorts are intact.
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