"A total of 10GWs of projects have been currently delayed, thus, leading to time and cost overruns. A total of 6.9GWs pertain to Central, 1.5GWs to State Sector and 3GWs to Private which are reeling under both, time and cost over runs. In terms of time, the projects currently under CWIP are delayed by over 30-40 months and in some cases, beyond six years. Poor geology, delays from contractors, local resistance (Land acquisition/forest clearance) and adverse weather conditions affecting logistics and operations were the main reasons for the delays. In terms of cost, the projects currently under CWIP have crossed over 30 percent on an average of their original cost (average PC being Rs8-10bn) approved in the DPR. Out of the total projects in CWIP, 5247MWs has been awarded to BHEL , 100MWs to Chinese players and balance 4752MWs to Indian (VA Tech), French (Alstom), European (Litostroj Slovenia) and Chinese (Dongfang) TG suppliers. Major EPC contractors for these projects are SNC, Patel Engineering, Jaiprakash, HCC, DSC Engineering, Om Metals, Gammon India etc."
"With geopolitical hindrances within India and outside likely to remain the same, the progress of HEPs continue to remain dismal. Around 265MWs is expected to come up in H2FY14 and another 2500-3000MWs in FY15-16. Looking at the progress of CWIP, we expect the capacity addition target to be missed by 30 percent in the 12th Plan. In the listed space, while SJVN has the least risk of capacity addition as Rampur 412MWs is expected to come on stream by FY14, NHPC's Kishanganga, Parbati St. II and Subansiri Lower may slip into the 13th Plan. However, on account of a regulated model of earnings and healthy dividend yields within the power sector, NHPC and SJVN are relatively safer bets and hence, we maintain 'Accumulate' on both," says Prabhudas Lilladher research report.
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